Bull Market in China: Why Investors Should Take Notice

There’s Always a Bull Market Somewhere

Savvy investors understand the power of an open mind when analyzing the investing environment. Because markets are inherently cyclical, active investors should track various markets and stocks on their watchlists to uncover the strongest trends. For instance, the U.S. equity market is currently in a corrective phase. Since roughly 75% of a stock’s move is correlated to the general market’s direction it trades in, investors should look for strong trends outside of the U.S. so that they are not fighting an uphill battle.

Chinese Stocks Exhibit Stellar Relative Strength

There’s no cleaner and simpler way to determine a robust trend than to monitor relative price strength. Year-to-date, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) is up more than 20%. While the performance is impressive in a vacuum, it’s even more remarkable considering that the S&P 500 Index is slightly negative for the year.

Chinese Stocks are Resilient Despite Trump Tariffs

Chinese stocks are surprisingly resilient despite increasingly heated rhetoric between the U.S. and China and a back-and-forth tariff trade war.

Below are 3 bullish catalysts for Chinese stocks:

1. Increased Fiscal Stimulus: Liquidity is the critical catalyst for any market. Since last year, the Chinese government has pumped money into its economy, and Wednesday is evidence that the rate at which they are doing so is only increasing. Today, China Premier Li Qiang announced further fiscal stimulus and set China’s growth target at a juicy 5%.

2. A Return of EPS Growth: E-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) is a solid example of how China’s tech earnings have turned the corner. After growing steadily for five years, BABA’s growth stagnated from the end of 2020 to early 2023. However, the China bellwether has started to grow again, and Zacks Consensus Analyst Estimates predict record EPS growth in 2025 and 2026.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

While BABA is one of the best proxies for Chinese EPS growth, investors will likely get more evidence of a China turnaround when Futu Holdings (FUTU) and JD.com (JD) report earnings in the next few days.

3. Potential Tariff Resolution: To understand what will happen next in the China-US trade war, investors must understand how President Donald Trump conducts business. While most investors believe the immediate impact of tariffs is negative for both countries, second-order thinking suggests that Trump is likely using tariffs as nothing more than a negotiating tool. Before COVID-19, the U.S. and China reached a deal despite heated rhetoric beforehand during Trump’s first presidency. With Chinese stocks already acting well in the face of tariffs, any resolution to the trade war would likely send them flying higher.

Chinese Tech Stocks Set Up in Big Base Structure

The Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) is currently set up in a long, four-month base structure. As the Wall Street adage goes, “The longer the base, the higher in space.”

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Beyond the many positives mentioned, valuations are at rock-bottom levels, and short-interest recently notched an all-time high (despite the recent uptrend). Should the breakout stick, these factors add even more fuel to the fire, potentially setting the stage for a vertical price move.

Bottom Line

The confluence of robust government stimulus, a resurgence in corporate earnings, and the potential for eased trade tensions present a compelling case for Chinese equities.

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