Largest Political Advertising Blitz in US History: Impact on 2024 Presidential Campaigns and Market Largest Political Advertising Blitz in US History: Impact on 2024 Presidential Campaigns and Market

By: Alex Freidmen

As the riveting political theater of a presidential election cycle unfolds, the spotlight shines brightly on the intense battle between potential candidates. Featuring seasoned veterans Donald Trump and Joe Biden as front-runners in the race for their party’s nominations, the 2024 presidential election promises to be a clash of the titans.

With the poll numbers reflecting a close race but with a notable trend emerging, the stage is set for extensive campaign activities by political action committees. One such entity is making headlines with its ambitious plan to undertake a monumental advertising initiative.

Understanding the Move: After enjoying a lead for several months and finding himself in a neck-and-neck race with Trump, Biden has now fallen behind in the national 2024 election polls.

Biden’s trailing status is not confined to national polls alone. The worrisome trend also extends to seven pivotal swing states, which are poised to play a decisive role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

Future Forward, a Democratic super PAC firmly in Biden’s corner, has sounded the clarion call by earmarking a staggering $250 million for an all-encompassing advertising blitz across these critical swing states. This unprecedented decision, as per a report from The New York Times, signals the formation of a political advertising juggernaut.

The $250 million investment has been meticulously apportioned, with $140 million allocated for television ads and a substantial $110 million earmarked for campaigns across digital and streaming platforms, per the report.

In a grand display of financial firepower, Future Forward has claimed the mantle for the largest single purchase ever made by a super PAC for political advertising in the annals of American history.

The commencement of advertising activities has been scheduled for August, precisely a day after the Democratic National Convention, and is set to culminate with the grand crescendo of Election Day in November.

The battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will serve as the primary theaters for the rollout of these high-stakes advertising endeavors.

Notably, substantial investments, including $16 million and $12 million, have been allocated for the Atlanta, Georgia, and Phoenix, Arizona, TV markets, magnifying the sheer scale and intensity of the maelstrom of political advertisements awaiting voters.

Chauncey McLean, the President of Future Forward’s super PAC, expressed unequivocal resolve, stating, “The stakes of this election could not be higher, and by Election Day, every battleground voter will know it. We’ll run a cost-effective and data-driven program of unprecedented scale to re-elect Joe Biden.”

In a historical context, Future Forward had previously committed $151 million to advertising efforts in support of Biden during the 2020 election, a testament to their unwavering dedication and substantial financial commitments.

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Sizable Ramifications: The stark revelation from a recent Morning Consult poll has further underscored the significance of the advertising blitz, with Biden trailing behind Trump in all seven swing states by varying margins in terms of voter support.

Arizona: 39% Biden, 45% Trump

Georgia: 41% Biden, 42% Trump

Michigan: 39% Biden, 44% Trump

Nevada: 37% Biden, 44% Trump

North Carolina: 38% Biden, 48% Trump

Pennsylvania: 40% Biden, 44% Trump

Wisconsin: 40% Biden, 43% Trump

The remaining segment of voters refrained from making a definitive choice or remained uncertain about their preferred option. Collectively, these seven swing states constitute a substantial portion, with a cumulative total of 93 electoral votes, signifying their influential status in the impending 2024 election.

Of these seven crucial states, Biden had emerged victorious in six during the 2020 election, with Trump claiming North Carolina. This noteworthy shift in dynamics serves as an illuminating reminder of the fluidity of political tides and the potential for intriguing realignments in electoral landscapes.

Notably, a report from Benzinga forecasts the 2024 election cycle to witness a novel record, with an anticipated $10.2 billion in ad spending. This projection represents a substantial 13% surge from the financial outlays witnessed during the 2020 election.

The report further contends that the seven pivotal swing states are poised to emerge as the epicenters of pronounced ad spending, contributing to a commanding 75% share of the total expenditure earmarked for the presidential election.

Market Watch: The intensified advertising for the 2024 election races is anticipated to offer favorable tailwinds for national television companies such as Paramount Global (PARA), Fox Corp (FOX), Comcast Corp (CMCSA), and Walt Disney Co (DIS), which owns CBS, FOX, NBC, and ABC, respectively.

In addition to the national media entities, a cohort of publicly traded companies operating local media stations stands to benefit from the ripple effects stemming from national campaigns and local races during the forthcoming 2024 election.

This group of prospective beneficiaries includes Gray Television Inc (GTN), NexStar Media Group Inc (NXST), Tegna Inc (TGNA), and E.W. Scripps Company (SSP).

The resonating implications from the New York Times report extend to several digital advertising beneficiaries as well. YouTube, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc (GOOG), has garnered approximately $35 million in ad reservations from Future Forward. Additionally, Roku Inc (ROKU) and Disney-owned Hulu and Vevo have been identified as recipients of digital ad buys from the PAC.