As the U.S. economy faces a 51.84% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, investors might be wary about diving into the stock market in 2024. However, historical precedents and the advice of investment gurus like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch paint a different picture.
The Historical Relationship Between Recessions and Stock Market Declines
The U.S. economy has weathered nine recessions since 1960, each accompanied by a substantial stock market downturn. On average, the S&P 500 plummeted by 32% during these economic contractions, emphasizing the market’s vulnerability during downturns.
But should this dissuade savvy investors from participating in the stock market in 2024? These two investing legends would argue otherwise.
Avoiding the Pitfalls of Market Timing
Peter Lynch’s tenure at the helm of Fidelity Magellan Fund during an era punctuated by recessions and bear markets showcases the perils of market timing. Lynch’s annual return of 29.2% between 1977 and 1990 far outpaced the S&P 500, underscoring the futility of attempting to foresee market corrections.
Warren Buffett’s track record further supports this view, as Berkshire Hathaway consistently injected funds into the stock market regardless of prevailing economic conditions, defying market timing in favor of long-term value creation.
Finding Opportunity in All Market Conditions
Under Warren Buffett’s stewardship, Berkshire Hathaway has amassed immense wealth through consistently seizing buying opportunities across market cycles. Despite the elevated current valuations of the S&P 500, prudent investors should remain vigilant about valuations when considering stock purchases.
Identifying Stocks with Economic Moats and Discounted Valuations
Warren Buffett’s preference for companies with robust economic moats trading at discounted valuations serves as a guiding principle for investors. Companies with pricing power and cost advantages such as Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Visa represent the kind of enduring businesses that Buffett favors.
Investing 2024: Why Warren Buffett’s Philosophy Still Rings True
Buffett’s Enduring Investment Philosophy
In 1992, Warren Buffett defined intrinsic value by quoting economist John Burr Williams: “The value of any stock, bond, or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows — discounted at an appropriate interest rate — that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset.”
Discounted Cash Flow Model and Investment Strategy
Buffett’s quote refers to the discounted cash flow (DCF) model, a somewhat complex mathematical formula that estimates what a company is worth by discounting its future earnings back to their present value. Fortunately, there are plenty of DCF calculators online. Investors should make a habit of using one of those calculators to estimate the fair value of a stock before purchasing shares.
Buffett’s and Lynch’s Investment Advice for 2024
Despite the Federal Reserve’s forecasting tool currently signaling a high probability of a recession in the next year, investment guru Warren Buffett and renowned investor Peter Lynch would recommend buying stocks in 2024, provided investors take the time to identify good stocks trading at reasonable prices.
Capital Deployment During Economic Downturns
Furthermore, if the economy does slip into a recession, investors should treat any subsequent drawdown in the stock market as a buying opportunity. To quote Buffett, “The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down.”
Investment Recommendations
Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than tripled the return of the S&P 500 since 2002*.
*Stock Advisor returns as of December 18, 2023
John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon, Nvidia, and Visa. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase, Nvidia, and Visa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.