S&P 500 Emini Analysis: Bullish Tides Turning? S&P 500 Emini Analysis: Bullish Tides Turning?

By: Alex Freidmen

Assessing the Pre-Market Situation

  • The S&P Emini formed a bull bar recently but failed to close above a key high, suggesting weakening bullish sentiment and potential sideways to downward movement ahead.
  • Odds are increasing for a test of the moving average as bullish momentum wanes.
  • Expectations for today lean towards a bearish close, with bears eyeing a strong reversal to test the moving average.
  • The current market rally appears constrained, favoring a trading range over a bearish trend.
  • Although bearish momentum has stalled buying, a sustained downturn would require consecutive bearish bars to solidify.
  • While the market remains distant from the moving average, buyers may step in upon testing the key level.
  • In the broader picture, a sideways trajectory is anticipated, with potential tests of previous highs and lows in the months to come.

Anticipating Today’s Movements

  • Early indications point to a 12-point increase in Emini during the overnight Globex session.
  • A tight bull channel has dominated the Globex market recently.
  • A downside breakout occurred during the 8:30 AM EST report, setting the stage for potential bearish momentum.
  • Bears are optimistic about establishing a bearish trend today with a potential reversal on the daily chart.
  • Maintaining a bear trend is the aim of bears, while bulls are striving to prevent such a scenario.
  • During the U.S. Session, a trading range open is expected despite chances of a bear trend emerging.
  • Traders should brace for sideways movement post the market open, with probabilities skewed towards a trading range.
  • A cautious approach of waiting 6-12 bars before trading can enhance chances of capitalizing on daily highs and lows while reducing risks of entrapment in false breakouts.
  • Volatility may peak at market open, potentially causing losses, and traders should consider the weekly support and resistance levels, especially on Fridays.
  • Market magnetism may center around the midpoint of the week, presenting trading opportunities around 5,534.25.
  • Patience is paramount as the market opens, with reversals typical before a clear trading setup emerges.
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Reviewing Previous Emini Setups

Emini 5-Min Chart

Strategic stop-entry setups from the recent period are charted here, highlighting potential trade triggers and market dynamics. Traders are advised to exercise caution and adapt setups to their risk tolerance.

Successful swing trades are not guaranteed, and exits are common when expectations are not met. Traders with lower risk appetites may consider alternative markets for trading opportunities.