Tesla Earnings Preview: From EV Leader to AI‑Infra Contender?

Tesla (NASDAQ:) will report Q1 2026 earnings today, April 22, after the close. Over the past year, its image has shifted from pure EV maker to an ambitious AI and robotics contender.

Shares jumped 15% last week on optimism about the company’s AI‑chip progress yet are still roughly 20% below December’s highs.

Key highlights:

• Analysts will press Tesla on its path to scalable full autonomy when it reports Wednesday, as a tepid EV outlook follows past sales-driven earnings gains.
• Edaily reports Samsung quadrupled its monthly 8GB GDDR6 DRAM shipments to Tesla in April versus Q1, amid Tesla’s memory‑supply issues. The move follows a roughly $16.5 billion long‑term semiconductor manufacturing deal the two signed last year.
• SpaceX said Tuesday it is partnering with AI coding startup Cursor and has secured the right to buy it later this year for $60 billion or alternatively pay $10 billion for a partnership, the company said in a social post. Investors will watch for signs of xAI’s impact and any clues about a possible SpaceX tie‑up.
• Tesla launched a six‑seat Model Y L in India on Wednesday—an extended‑wheelbase variant priced at 6.2 million rupees (about $66,324) expanding its limited lineup after a subdued market entry last July.
• Shanghai authorities said Tuesday Tesla has registered its AI‑powered voice assistant with the city’s cyberspace regulator, one of 158 AI features filed as part of China’s tech oversight. The U.S. EV maker defends market share even while its Full Self‑Driving remains unapproved for local deployment.
• Tesla registrations in California plunged 24.3% in Q1 the steepest decline in the state — the California New Car Dealers Association reported Tuesday, underscoring waning momentum in the broader EV market in its most important U.S. region.
• The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September has weakened U.S. demand by removing a key purchase incentive. Tesla has reported two consecutive years of falling deliveries; analysts project only modest growth this year, while some predict a third straight decline.

Analysts Expectation:

• BofA Securities reiterated a Buy on Tesla (TSLA) with a $460 price target—implying upside from the $392.50 share price while the stock trades at a lofty 362 P/E.
• Morgan Stanley kept an Equal‑weight rating and $415 price target on Tesla after the company rolled out robotaxi service in two more cities.
• Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $350 from $300 but kept a Hold rating, citing stronger mid‑term growth expectations. Shares trade at $395.45, up 14% this week.

TSLA Q1 2026 earnings after market (4:07 pm et) Wednesday April 22, 2026

Expected Move by Option Expiration:

Options flow shows net positive open interest at the 400, 420 and 450 strikes (totaling 194,094 contracts) and net negative open interest at the 350, 320 and 300 strikes (−179,352 contracts) across expiries from April 2026 to December 2028.

These strikes sit near the current price, while farther out there’s large positive open interest at 500, 605 and 705 and large negative open interest at 245 and 195. All quarterlies between 2027–2028 are included.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• TSLA rejected 490–500 resistance zone twice between Dec ’24 and Dec ’25.
• The stock has bounced several times off an ascending trendline that began in Jun ’25.
• The latest rebound started from the Apr ’26 low of 337.
• Prices have failed to hold above a resistance band at 390–405.
• If that band stays intact before and after earnings, a drop toward 351–340 is likely.
• Conversely, a strong, sustained break above 405–410 would open the path to rallies into 417–420 and 425–430.

Daily Candlestick Chart

TSLA Seasonality Chart:

Since 2012, TSLA has closed April up an average 6.45% in 67% of years, while May has seen an average gain of 5.92% in 43% of years.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.