The Bearish Sentiment Surrounding Starbucks Ahead Of Q1 Earnings

By: Alex Freidmen

Analyst Assessment

Financial analysts are assessing Starbucks Corp’s upcoming earnings report, set for January 30 after market hours, to inform their investment recommendations. The company’s stock has declined over 10% in the past year, significantly impacted by inflationary pressures throughout 2023.

Technical Analysis

The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is approaching the 200-day SMA, but falls short of crossing over, a potential bullish signal for the stock. On-balance volume (OBV) has been declining since mid-November, signaling negative volume pressure and possible lower prices ahead.

Analyst Rating

Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan has assigned a Neutral rating to Starbucks, while reducing the price target from $107 to $100 per share. The assessment suggests a mixed sentiment surrounding the stock.

Outlook and Concerns

Mullan’s analysis indicates that while Starbucks may achieve its adjusted EPS guidance for fiscal 2024 due to cost-saving initiatives, there are concerns about same-store sales (SSS) and uncertainties in the US and China markets. He notes a lack of clarity on Starbucks’ China business and expresses reservations about its future SSS trends.

Market Dynamics

Mullan acknowledges positive risk-reward dynamics and relative value but emphasizes uncertainties around absolute upside potential, despite the stock trading at around 20x forward earnings. Starbucks’ stock was trading up 0.080% at $93.42 at the time of publication.

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